I’m just writing this to be a total prick and rub your face in things and make you angry at me, because now even Microsoft is taking ARM seriously after announcing an x86-on-ARM emulator for Windows, and six years ago I told you (more or less) so. But anyone in computing could have made that prediction at the time, so don’t be too angry. It seems I was quite optimistic back then. Let’s see what happened to the rest of my predictions:
- I said Atom would never catch up to ARM in terms of energy efficiency or power consumption vs. performance. This is probably one reason why Intel dropped their Atom for mobile processors now. So I got that one right.
- I said the Linux kernel would play a big role in this and would expand to more and more devices. Since then things like the Raspberry Pi were introduced, Chromecast happened, the Amazon Fire TV stick thingy came out, cheap Chinese Android TV boxes are a normal thing, the Amazon Echo appeared and all of these run Linux. Devices that sold millions or even dozens or hundreds of millions of units. I’ll rate that as correct.
These are things probably anyone could’ve predicted. Were there people doubting ARM at the time? I don’t know. Maybe Microsoft was, but that was under old management and old management was not good at seeing the signs. Ballmer was good at propping up the old business model, but completely uninspired with regards to innovation.